HWZ Article: Governor’s Race Still Front and Center in Wisconsin Politics, September 2026
With the primary elections behind us, our eyes turn toward November 3rd with a clearer view of who is running for what, and where they stand, two months out.
David Crowley (D-Milwaukee) narrowly emerged from a crowded primary field to become the Democratic Party’s nominee to replace retiring Governor Tony Evers. Crowley will face U.S. Congressman Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua), who did not have a serious primary challenge.
Crowley’s biggest hurdle is that he has to introduce himself to voters outside of southeastern Wisconsin who are not familiar with him, get the extreme liberal left to stay with him (40% of the Democrat electorate voted for Hong), and he needs to raise the resources to do so, quickly. Governor Evers, who endorsed Crowley in the primary, will most certainly tap into his political network to help boost Crowley’s campaign.
Tiffany, on the other hand, will have to convince independent voters that there will be daylight between him and President Trump and that Crowley will cater to socialists in his party, which is untenable. And he must be willing to push back on federal policies that will worsen the current affordability crisis. Tiffany is “Trump-endorsed,” which will help him with some voters but hurt his credibility with some independents.
Midterm elections often favor the party that does not control the White House, and for months polling has suggested Democrats are in a strong position to maintain the Governor’s office and pick up seats in the state legislature.
But in a purple state like Wisconsin, it’s important to look at a number of different metrics when assessing the prospects for each party’s success. Here are three that are commonly cited:
“Top-of-the-Ticket” Head-to-Head Matchup
The race at the “top-of-the-ticket” is the race that most significantly drives turnout for both political parties. If one candidate is vastly outperforming his or her opponent, that will boost candidates from the same party further down the ballot. Right now Crowley leads Tiffany by five percentage points (49% to 44%) according to a reputable poll of likely voters taken right after the August primary. Other public polls currently show Crowley with a slightly smaller lead but a lot can change before election day.
Generic Congressional Ballot
The “generic ballot” is a measurement of how voters feel about the two political parties without ascribing specific individuals/candidates to the parties. In other words, it seeks to find out if people are generally going to vote Republican or vote Democratic. One respected national outlet has the Democrats with a 6.6% advantage over Republicans as of early September. That number suggests plenty of opportunity for Democrats to win over dissatisfied independent voters, but does not necessarily indicate a “wave” Election.
Trump’s Approval Rating
The President’s approval rating in Wisconsin is a significant factor, especially if it is trending aggressively one way or another. Trump’s approval rating in Wisconsin has been falling consistently since he retook office in 2025. It is now at its lowest point (40% approval, 59% disapproval) of his current term.
These numbers individually tell bits and pieces of the story, but taken together they show that Tiffany has a lot of ground to cover to overcome what will likely be a tough environment for Republicans.
Concerns about rising prices and the cost of living still dominate what voters care most about, and the military engagement with Iran is also causing significant unease.
Crowley needs to convince voters that he is a centrist Democrat in the mold of Tony Evers, and is the safest bet to lead the state in these turbulent times. Tiffany needs to convince voters that the Democrats have become too extreme to for purple Wisconsin and that sending our state hurtling towards socialism is not a reasonable counter to Trump’s policies.
We will know whose arguments were more convincing to that sliver of voters in the middle who decide the outcome of Wisconsin’s elections on November 3rd.